Complete definitions for every metric, term, and concept used across PredictionEdge.
| Metric | Type | Range | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes Price | decimal | 0.01-0.99 | Current bid price for a YES share. Multiply by 100 for cents. |
| No Price | decimal | 0.01-0.99 | Current bid price for a NO share. Yes + No = ~1.00 in efficient markets. |
| Arb Spread | percent | 0-20% | Theoretical profit % from best arbitrage trade across platforms. Above 2% after fees is actionable. |
| Momentum | float | -1 to +1 | Price velocity. Positive = rising. Negative = falling. Magnitude = rate of change. |
| Conviction | float | 0-1 | Volume-weighted certainty score. 5 dots = maximum conviction. |
| Confidence | float | 0-1 | Semantic similarity between matched questions. Below 0.6 verify manually. |
| Divergence | percent | 0-100% | Average cross-platform price difference. High = markets disagree = potential signal. |
| Best Price Delta | percent | 0-30% | Savings available buying cheapest vs most expensive platform for this market. |
| Volume 24h | currency | $0+ | Total dollar value traded in last 24 hours. Proxy for activity and price reliability. |
| Liquidity | currency | $0+ | Total capital in order book. Higher = larger trades with less slippage. |
~2%
Low fees, high liquidity
Requires crypto wallet, US restricted
7%
CFTC regulated, USD deposits
7% fee kills small spreads
10%+
Large political community
15% effective fee, slow settlement
None
No fees, great API
No real money withdrawals
None
High quality forecasters
No real money trading
Each platform exposes different data through its API. Understanding these limitations helps you interpret prices and spreads accurately.
PredictIt uses a bracket structure where one market contains multiple YES/NO contracts (e.g., "Which party wins the Senate?" has separate contracts per party). PredictionEdge displays each contract individually. Prices shown may differ from what you see on PredictIt's market overview page, which shows the full bracket.
10% fee on profits + 5% withdrawal fee = ~15% effective cost. A spread must exceed ~16% to break even after fees.
PredictIt caps positions at $850 per contract. Large theoretical spreads may not be fully exploitable.
US residents cannot legally trade on Polymarket. Markets are monitored for divergence signals but verify jurisdictional compliance before acting.
Polymarket uses a Central Limit Order Book. Thin markets may show wide spreads between YES and NO that do not represent true probability.
Kalshi's public API has stricter rate limits. During high-volume periods, price updates may lag by 1โ2 polling cycles (~5โ10 minutes).
Kalshi charges fees on both sides of a trade. PredictionEdge applies 7% per leg โ any Kalshi-involved spread requires >14% gross to be net positive.
Manifold uses mana (แน), a play-money currency with no real-world cash value. Use Manifold data as a sentiment signal, not a trading target.
Manifold uses an Automated Market Maker model. Prices may be less stable than order-book platforms, especially in low-activity markets.
Metaculus is a forecasting platform with no money involved. "Prices" represent the community median probability. Useful for calibration but cannot be arbitraged.
Community forecasts update as users submit predictions. Data may lag real-time events by hours in fast-moving situations.
Market data is scanned every 5 minutes. The dashboard auto-refreshes every 30 seconds. Pro/Premium users receive instant push notifications for high-spread opportunities.
Prediction markets are efficient. Most mispricings are corrected within seconds by automated bots. Divergence opportunities (5-10/day) are the primary value driver for most traders.
The price chart uses stored snapshot data when available (live) or illustrative demo data when insufficient history exists. The LIVE/DEMO indicator in the status bar shows which is active.
Below 70%, manually verify questions resolve on the same event before acting. Below 50%, treat the match as a potential false positive.
Real money: Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt. Play money / reputation only: Manifold Markets, Metaculus.
Disclaimer: PredictionEdge.ai provides market intelligence for informational purposes only. Nothing constitutes financial advice. Always verify trades manually before execution.